Okay, now that I have established my trading strategy in the previous post, I will give an update of my trading record of 2023. This is a fully disclosed record - real trades, real profits and losses, nothing hidden. I will comment on my reasons for entering and exiting the trade and what strategy I used to the best of my recollection. Obviously since my trading strategy is evolving, the rules used at the beginning are different from my rules now. Hopefully I will be able to portray correctly how my strategy has evolved. So let's go!
Pivot trade 1: 2023/06/22 short EUR/JPY 1 lot +9,980
I recall this trade well. I was stalking short EUR/JPY as the exchange rate was getting to levels last seen in 2008. I put in an order at the next biggest number above the current price - 156.00. Correct, this was not a pivot trade at entry.
So I got triggered into the short trade at 156.00 on June 22, and I was planning to get out at a Fibonacci retracement lower. Over the next few days the price went as high as 157.998 and stayed there for a few days. I did not add to my position, I just stuck to the original 1 lot. At that time I had no adding to my strategy. I am not even sure we can call this a strategy.
In terms of exit, I found out about pivot points early in July, so I switched my exit point to the monthly pivot of 154.70. And then I waited, and on July 11, my take profit was hit at the monthly pivot. Total profit of the trade was 9,980 yen, after subtracting the negative carry. I was hooked on pivots at that time!
Pivot trade 2: 2023/08/10 short EUR/JPY 1 lot +10,850
So for 1 month I just stalked the market. I was looking at yen crosses only, looking to short them at the R1 monthly pivot. I got triggered into a trade on EUR/JPY at 159.19 on Aug.10. I was looking to exit at the monthly pivot, which was 155.30 in August. I waited and I waited, but, it never went that low.
My close level was finally reached at the pivots changed in September. The new PP point was 157.70, and it got hit on Sep.1. The total profit after the negative carry is subtracted was 10,850 yen. It was a good trade overall.
Pivot trade 3: 2023/08/10 short CHF/JPY 1 lot +6,358
On the same day as the previous trade I got triggered into a short on the CHF/JPY at R1 165.29. Again, I was waiting for a drop to PP, but that drop did not happen until the monthly pivot points were updated in September. On Sep.1 I exited at PP 164.44. The total profit after the negative carry was 6,358 yen. Another good trade, executed according to the monthly pivot points.
Pivot trade 4: 2023/08/15 short USD/JPY 1 lot +7,058
I was testing the new pivots system, so I did not add to my positions, just do the 1 lot. On Aug.15 I got triggered into a USD/JPY short at 145.71, then waiting for a test of the PP monthly pivot. Again, no test in August, I only got a chance to exit as the PP changed in September. On Sep.1, I exited at 144.56 for a total profit of 7,058. Not bad again.
Pivot trade 5: 2023/08/16 short GBP/JPY 1 lot +12,365
Another long yen trade triggered on Aug.16, short GBP/JPY at R1 185.64, then exit at the PP test, which came on Sep.1 at 183.89, giving me a really nice profit of 12,365 yen. And this is the last of my 4 trades that got closed on Sep.1. These were some really nice profits, which felt good. More importantly, these trades had been executed at monthly pivot points, so I was feeling really confident about the monthly pivot points trading strategy.
Pivot trade 6: 2023/09/05 short USD/JPY 1 lot -9,255
So I was flying high after the big profits I got on September 1. I got triggered into a new short on Sep.5 at WR1 147.61, and waited. I should have used MR1 instead of WR1. At the end, this trade got triggered too early, but the exit was the same at PP. That level got reached only on Oct.3, where I exited at 147.84 for a loss of -9,255 yen. As I held this trade for a long time, there was a lot of negative carry, dictating the big loss. In terms of exiting at a loss, that is not a big problem. The big problem with this trade was entered at WR1 instead of MR1.
Pivot trade 7: 2023/09/21 long GBP/USD 1 lot +11,669
This was my first trade not involving the Japanese yen, so I am proud of it. The reason I entered this trade was a new rule I started following, which is relative currency strength. From the 8 currencies and 26 pairs I track the pivots of, I give each 1 point if the currency is stronger in their pair. The maximum thus is 7 and the minimum is 0 points for each currency. At the end, the pairs are evaluated based on the difference between the total points of each currency in the pair. The reason I chose to look for a short in GBP/USD was that the GBP was the weakest and USD was the strongest at that time. So I stalked at S1 1.2239, and got triggered on Sep.21. Then I exited on Oct.11 for a total profit of 11,669 yen after subtracting negative carry.
I was really glad that my pivot trading strategy worked for other currency pairs too, so I continued to track their movements and set my traps accordingly at the pivot points based on relative strength.
Pivot trade 8: 2023/09/25 short USD/CHF 1 lot +4,627
At the end of September the USD was getting too strong relative to the other 7 currencies, so I entered my second short on USD vs CHF on Sep.25 at R1 0.9095. As the monthly pivots changed in October, I was able to exit my position at PP 0.9057 on Oct.10 for a profit of +4,627. It was a good profitable trade, no complaints.
Pivot trade 9: 2023/10/18 short CHF/JPY 1 lot +8,060
The next trade on relative strength was short CHF/JPY at 166.75 on Oct.18. This was quite a short trade, as it got closed on Oct.27 at 165.823. The total profit was +8,060. The reason this trade was so short, was that I was testing trading with weekly pivots instead of monthly pivots. This trade worked out, so I guess it is possible to trade with weekly pivots as well.
Pivot trade 10: 2023/10/31 short USD/JPY 1 lot +8,605
The next trade I got back to trading off of the monthly pivots. USD/JPY got triggered into a short on the last day of the month Oct.31 at R1 151.206. Then, the trade was closed at the PP test at 150.221 on Nov.2. Total profit after subtracting carry was +8,605 yen.
Pivot trade 11: 2023/11/03 short EUR/USD 1 lot +101
The next trade was short EUR/USD at R1 1.07 on Nov.3. Actually, this trade I did not follow the rules when exiting. Somehow I chickened out and instead of waiting for a PP test, I exited at break even on Nov.7 for a small profit of +101 yen. With the benefit of hindsight, this was a correct decision, as the price action went against me when I was out already. Lucky me. However, in terms of following the strategy, this trade was a failure. If the same opportunity happens in the future, I will stick to my guns and wait for my TP to be reached. In this case, that would mean adding 2 lots at R2 1.082, then adding 3 lots at R3 1.094. The average price at that point would have been 1.086, and looking to exit at a profit, I would have exited at the closest monthly pivot offering a profit, which was PP at 1.081 on Dec.4. I will stick to the strategy in the future.
Pivot trade 12: 2023/11/04 short AUD/JPY 1 lot +8,248
I went short AUD/JPY at MR1 97.30 on Nov.4. I then exited the trade on Nov.10 at WPP 96.399 for a total profit of 8,248 yen. On trades with negative carry, I should be looking to exit at WS1 or WR1, not WPP. Also, according to my new strategy, which I was not using at that time, I need to be adding 2 lots at MR2. In that case, I would have exited all 3 lots on a retest at MR1, which would have been a more profitable trade.
Pivot trade 13: 2023/11/14 short EUR/JPY 1 lot +7,410
I was getting more cautious this month looking for ways to exit trades before a test of the monthly PP. So I started to try using the weekly pivots for exits. In this case, I entered on the monthly R1 at 162.648 on Nov.14 and exited at 161.731, which was the weekly PP on Nov.21. The total profit of the trade was 7,410. It looks like the more flexible exit strategy was working for me, but actually I would have been able to get a much larger profit had I stuck to my guns and waited for reaching PP or the monthly pivots update.
Pivot trade 14: 2023/11/14 short GBP/JPY 1 lot +9,230
I went short GBP/JPY at MR1 186.321 on Nov.14. I then exited the trade on Nov.20 at WS1 at 185.218 for a total profit of 9,230 yen. On trades with negative carry, I should be looking to exit at WS1 or WR1, so this was a correct trade.
Pivot trade 15: 2023/12/07 long USD/JPY 2 lots +23,340
I used the monthly S1 and then S2 pivots to enter 2 lots long in USD/JPY at 145.933 and 143.683 on Dec.8. I then exited at the S1 pivot of 145.933 on Dec.11 for a nice profit of 23,340. This was a nice trade, wetting my appetite for more pivot strategy trades! But don't get excited because not all trades are as easy as this one.
Pivot trade 16: 2023/12/07 long EUR/JPY 2 lots +28,100
I used the monthly S1 and S2 pivots to enter 2 lots long in EUR/JPY at 156.323 and 153.584 on Dec.8. I then exited at the S1 pivot of 156.323 on Dec.11 for a nice profit of 28,100. This was a nice trade, wetting my appetite for more pivot strategy trades! But don't get excited because not all trades are as easy as this one.
And this was the last trade I closed in 2023! It was a good year, especially for trading with pivots. My total profit on the pivot trades closed in 2023 was 147,389 yen. If I include the trades before the pivot strategy, the total loss is -224,755 yen. So obviously I still need to catch up and make up for my losses.
In the next post I will cover my trades and the evolution of my trading strategy for January 2024.