Happy New Year everyone!
I am back to writing about the USD/JPY pair, giving some insights on the movement in the market.
It has been a while since the last time I wrote. Basically what happened in the last few months is that there was a big high a little under 152 on October 21, and then the pair reversed lower under 150 and never reclaimed that level.
Well, having in mind that this was a big uptrend, it was only natural that it will get resumed after a small correction. So as the price went to 140, I was thinking of reentering long. It went lower though. Even at 135 it was supposed to go back up.
Well, then came December 20, when the BOJ dropped a bombshell. They were supposed to do nothing, but they surprised the market by widening their yield control bands. That was interpreted as a precursor of the BOJ becoming less dovish and finally joining the rest of the world in fighting inflation. So the yen started challenging the next target to the downside - 130. 130.50 to be more precise - that was the August 2 low, which provided big support on the first drive lower.
Fast forward to today and the market participants, who now are afraid of the BOJ starting to tighten and want to get ahead of them, drove the yen under 130 for the first time in 7 months. The last time we were at this level was June 3. The yen found support at 129.50 on June 2, and then took off higher to establish itself about 130 and on and on to over 150.
Now we have a new downtrend, which started in October. That downtrend is showing resistance at around 134 currently, followed by the 200 DMA at over 136.
The uptrend seems to be broken, although that is the uptrend from 2022. There is still an uptrend from September 2021, which is alive. That uptrend is currently providing support at 125. Another support at 126.50 is given by the lows from May last year.
Currently there is a tussle between the bulls and bears around 130. It is truly just a round number and does not play anything more than a symbolic role, but the dollar bulls would want to stay above 130. A daily close below 130 would open the way for a test of 126.50.
In my case, I am long USD/JPY and looking to add to my position, but I am patiently waiting to evaluate the daily close. I want to see if we get an exhaustion of the push to the downside. Need to be really careful to enter any positions only when it is clear that the downtrend is at least taking a breather and going for a retracement.